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Prediction markets
Prediction and outcome markets. Every Le Coin piece tagged Prediction markets, newest first, Learning Hub dives included.
Analysis
Prediction markets favor a Democratic House, putting crypto's Washington gains in play
How the 2026 midterms and the 2028 election could shape U.S. digital-asset rules: the stalled Clarity Act, crypto PAC money, candidate records and scenarios, with Kalshi odds as a reference point.
Protocols & Policy
X hides Polymarket's account from users in India
X's own account data lists India as the one country where Polymarket's account is withheld; what prompted it is not public.
Protocols & Policy
Utah sues Kalshi and Susquehanna, calling its contracts illegal gambling
After winning in federal court, Utah's attorney general has taken Kalshi and its trading partners to state court, seeking an injunction and the return of fees.
Markets
Hot September CPI lifts hike odds as bitcoin and ether slide
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September on an energy jump, with core up 0.3%. Kalshi traders put a 31% chance, as of 2:16 p.m. ET, on an October rate hike, and bitcoin and ether are lower since the 8:30 a.m. ET release.
Protocols & Policy
StarkWare's OffMarket lets Polymarket traders hide which wallet funds their bets
The web app parks USDC in a zero-knowledge pool on Starknet, then bridges it to a fresh Polygon wallet for each bet. The trades stay public on Polymarket; what it hides is who funded them. An auditing entity holds every user's viewing key in escrow, and U.S. persons are barred.
Protocols & Policy
NFL tells Supreme Court Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps, backing New Jersey
In an Oct. 8 amicus brief in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299, the National Football League asks the justices to hear New Jersey's appeal and side with the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, which held that sports event contracts fall outside the federal definition of a swap.
Protocols & Policy
Kalshi and Polymarket US self-certify new contracts without prior CFTC approval
Kalshi self-certified a stock-index future with no expiry date and Polymarket US self-certified yes-or-no contracts on drug prices and food-stamp enrollment, so each exchange attests its contract complies with the law and the CFTC can step in only after the filing.
Evening brief · Thu. Oct. 22, 4:26 p.m. ET
Evening brief: Ireland fines Coinbase's EU arm, Robinhood says Dubai approved it
The Central Bank of Ireland fined Coinbase Ireland Limited €3,252,618 over customer-money safeguards, Robinhood said it received Dubai authorization for a 2027 launch, and a Circle shareholder sued Trump and World Liberty.
Morning brief · Wed. Oct. 21, 9:36 a.m. ET
Morning brief: Malaysia's central bank opens a tokenized bond depository as solana's Alpenglow upgrade nears
Bank Negara Malaysia launches SSDS+ for tokenized bonds and sukuk.
Morning brief · Mon. Oct. 19, 8:01 a.m. ET
Morning brief: the CFTC's casino-style carve-out takes effect, SEC crypto-offering comments close Tuesday, and Cipher Digital closes $850 million of convertible notes
The CFTC’s casino-style carve-out takes effect today, and comments on it and the event-contract proposal are due Nov. 18.
Evening brief · Fri. Oct. 16, 4:36 p.m. ET
Evening brief: CFTC event-contract rules set for Monday, bitcoin slips 0.98%, Schwab opens crypto to all eligible clients
CFTC’s event-contract proposal and casino-style rule set for Monday’s Federal Register.
Morning brief · Wed. Oct. 14, 8:00 a.m. ET
Morning brief: spot ether ETFs end a 10-day, $782.8 million outflow run, Strive files for a $500 million daily-dividend preferred, and Consensys exits SharpLink before CPI
Strive files a $500 million, 15% preferred to buy bitcoin.
Morning brief · Tue. Oct. 13, 8:00 a.m. ET
Morning brief: Kospi falls 5.5%, the CFTC crypto ANPRM comment clock opens through Dec. 14, and spot ether ETFs log a 10th outflow day
CFTC crypto ANPRM publishes; Dec. 14 comment clock is live.
Morning brief · Mon. Oct. 12, 8:54 a.m. ET
Morning brief: bitcoin, ether and solana rise into Columbus Day, and the CFTC proposes treating event contracts as swaps
CFTC proposes event contracts as swaps.
Learning Hub · Prediction markets
Polymarket and Kalshi side by side: how two prediction markets work
Both sell contracts that pay a fixed amount if an event happens, but they differ on who records trades, who decides outcomes and how the CFTC oversees them.
Learning Hub · DEX and perps
Hyperliquid HIP-4: outcome markets
HIP-4 is the fourth Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal.
Newest first.