CFTC chief says regulators are watching election bets for manipulation

The head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator of US-licensed prediction markets, says the agency is watching those markets for manipulation as the midterm elections approach [1]. Prediction markets let people trade contracts that pay out depending on whether an event, such as an election result, happens.

"Market manipulation has no place in CFTC-regulated markets," Chairman Mike Selig wrote on his official X account at 11:46 a.m. ET on Oct. 23. "With the midterm elections approaching, the @CFTC is closely monitoring prediction markets for attempts to distort trading activity or manipulate outcomes." He added: "Let me be clear: Those who manipulate our markets will be held accountable" [1]. The post came with a video clip. The CFTC had not issued a press release on the post as of 1:43 p.m. ET, and Selig did not name any market or say a new investigation had opened.

Selig and the CFTC have both set out where they stand on these products. On Oct. 9 the agency proposed a rule to define event contracts, including those based on sports and politics, as swaps, a type of derivative it regulates. Selig said then that the products are "squarely within the CFTC's regulatory remit" and "within the agency's exclusive jurisdiction" [3].

According to the agency's guide to prediction markets, designated contract markets, or DCMs, the exchanges it regulates, act as self-regulatory organizations that "establish and enforce rules to protect against fraud, manipulation, and unfair trading practices, including insider trading," while the CFTC "conducts market surveillance and supervision" [2]. In August, the CFTC settled charges against a White House teleprompter operator who, it said, used advance access to presidential speeches to trade event contracts on what the President would say [4].

Sources

1. Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig), post on X, Oct. 23, 2026, 11:46 a.m. ET, https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2113658350978093521, accessed Oct. 23, 2026, 1:34 p.m. ET.
2. CFTC, "Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts," https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets, accessed Oct. 23, 2026, 1:34 p.m. ET.
3. CFTC, "CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning the Inclusion of Certain Event Contracts in the Definition of Swap," release 9310-26, Oct. 9, 2026, https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9310-26, accessed Oct. 23, 2026, 1:34 p.m. ET.
4. CFTC, "CFTC Orders Gabriel Perez to Pay $172,000 for Insider Trading of Mention Market Event Contracts," release 9289-26, Aug. 28, 2026, https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9289-26, accessed Oct. 23, 2026, 1:34 p.m. ET.

Holding the Corner.

Not financial advice.