Stablecoin supply stays flat as payments nearly double

Stablecoin supply barely grew over the past year while payments activity nearly doubled, according to BitGo Research citing data provider Allium. September's average stablecoin supply was $273.7 billion, against $262.2 billion a year earlier, roughly 4% higher, and still under the April 2026 peak of $281.2 billion. Over the same September-to-September window, adjusted payments volume as reported by BitGo Research using Allium data rose to $54.1 billion from $28.5 billion, the highest monthly print in that series [1].

BitGo Research published the figures on Oct. 26, 2026, in a Money20/20 takeaways note by Greg Cipolaro, BitGo's head of research. Le Coin charts the stated year-over-year point pairs only. The post does not publish a downloadable full monthly time series, and Allium was not pulled independently here [1].

What the two meters measure

Average supply is the stock of stablecoins outstanding — how many dollar-linked tokens sit onchain in a month. Adjusted payments volume is a flow: BitGo's Allium-based read of payments activity in a month, not a count of every transfer. BitGo frames the gap between a flat stock and a rising flow as faster turnover: the same roughly $270 billion pool doing more commerce work, without needing new minting to match the payments rise [1].

That framing is about rails, not a price call. BitGo's conference color is that networks are putting stablecoins behind existing products, for example Visa Direct USDC prefunding that leaves the recipient paid into a bank account or card as before. The chart story below is the data claim; the conference examples stay secondary [1].

Evidence from the September prints

Fig. 1. Puts the two September year-over-year pairs side by side. On the left, average supply moves from $262.2 billion to $273.7 billion. On the right, adjusted payments move from $28.5 billion to $54.1 billion, nearly double [1].

Trailing-twelve-month payments reinforce the monthly print: $434 billion in the year through September 2026, versus $291 billion in the prior twelve months, about a 49% increase. Payments' share of adjusted volume rose to 16.7% in September from 13.3% a year earlier [1].

Issuer mix helps explain why the stock stayed quiet. BitGo, citing Allium, says USDT barely moved since December ($191.4 billion versus $191.9 billion), USDC sat in a $70 billion to $77 billion band all year, and newer entrants PYUSD, USDG, and RLUSD together were about $6.5 billion, not enough to lift the total [1].

The objection: one research cut, not a census

A fair objection is that these are BitGo Research figures attributed to Allium, not a Le Coin rebuild of every chain and issuer. "Adjusted" is BitGo/Allium's cut; this piece does not independently verify which transfers are kept or dropped. BitGo's related note that some adjusted volumes exclude certain non-economic activity is a reminder that methodology choices move the level, even when the year-over-year direction is clear in their tables [1].

Another limit is coverage of the series itself. The chart uses the published September 2025 and September 2026 point figures. It is not a digitized copy of BitGo's blog images, and it is not a full monthly path. A later Allium or BitGo refresh could revise the decimals without erasing the qualitative gap BitGo highlights between a nearly flat stock and a much larger payments flow [1].

The tell

In Le Coin's view, the tell is whether the next BitGo/Allium monthly prints keep payments rising against a still-flat supply stock, or whether supply starts to expand again as the payments line cools. That is a description of how hard each dollar of stablecoin supply is working in this research cut. It is not a call on where any token or issuer trades next [1].

Sources

1. BitGo Research, Greg Cipolaro (Head of Research), "What Happens in Vegas Settles in Real Time," https://www.bitgo.com/resources/blog/what-happens-in-vegas-settles-in-real-time/ (published Oct. 26, 2026; schema datePublished 2026-10-26). Accessed about 6:21 a.m. ET Oct. 27, 2026. Allium-cited figures as stated: September average stablecoin supply $273.7B vs $262.2B a year earlier (4% YoY), under April 2026 peak $281.2B; adjusted payments volume $54.1B vs $28.5B (series high); TTM payments $434B vs $291B (+49%); payments share of adjusted volume 16.7% vs 13.3%; USDT $191.4B vs $191.9B since December; USDC $70–$77B band; PYUSD+USDG+RLUSD ~$6.5B. Le Coin Fig. 1 from stated YoY point pairs only: figures/2026-10-27-bitgo-stablecoin-payments/fig-1-data.v1.csv (DAE drop/2026-10-27-bitgo-stablecoin-payments/). Allium not independently pulled. BitGo chart images not republished.

Holding the Corner.

Not financial advice.