Markets · Cost basis
Saturday's CoinGecko 24-hour low near $79,263 sat under Glassnode's Oct. 19 estimate of about $80.2K for treasury companies; CoinMarketCap's UTC daily close still finished above $80,000.
Bitcoin traded under Glassnode's estimated average cost for the treasury companies it tracks on Saturday, then finished the UTC day above $80,000 [1][2][3][4]. CoinMarketCap put bitcoin at $80,676.64 when its quote last updated at about 9:19 p.m. ET, down 0.07% over 24 hours and about 36.1% below its all-time high of $126,198.07 (Oct. 6, 2025, about 3:00 p.m. ET) [2]. CoinGecko's 24-hour low was about $79,263 as of about 9:21 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko API [3].
As of Oct. 19, Glassnode estimated that average treasury cost at about $80.2K, derived from holdings and unrealized profit, with the US spot ETF cost basis just above it. Both sat between $80K and $81.5K in that report [1]. An intraday print under those lines is not the same as Glassnode's stated test: a daily close below $80K that would put the average ETF and treasury holder at a loss. That daily close has not printed [1][4].
Cost basis, in Glassnode's framing for this note, is the average price paid for the bitcoin those holder groups still hold. For treasury companies, Glassnode's Week On-chain 42 report ("Swept and Refilled," Oct. 21) says the estimate comes from holdings and unrealized profit. For US spot ETFs, it is the average price the funds paid for the coins they hold [1].
Glassnode also puts the True Market Mean, the average cost basis of active investors, near $77.6K as of the same Oct. 19 cut [1]. That line sits below Saturday's CoinGecko low. The report's holder test that matters for this piece is the $80K daily close, not the True Market Mean.
Glassnode wrote that bitcoin has closed above the treasury cost line every day since Sept. 18, and that treasury buying every month since June has added less than a tenth of the November 2024 peak [1]. CoinMarketCap's UTC daily series matches the close side of that picture through Oct. 24: every close from Sept. 18 through Oct. 24 finished above $80,000. The Oct. 24 UTC close was about $80,790.84, on a UTC daily low of about $79,145.54. The last CMC UTC close below $80,000 was Sept. 17, at about $76,403.78 [4].
Saturday was not the first intraday tag near those levels this month. Glassnode's report says the deepest prior dip came on Oct. 15, when the hourly close fell to about $80.1K before the next hourly close moved back above the ETF line. CoinMarketCap's Oct. 15 UTC daily low was about $79,735.86 [1][4].
Forced closings still ran long-heavy into the evening. Over the 24 hours to about 9:20 p.m. ET, crypto-only liquidations were about $76.7M in shorts and $465.5M in longs, per CoinMarketCap after Le Coin removed non-crypto contracts from the aggregate [5]. Top coins, shorts then longs: bitcoin (-0.1%) about $18.7M / $177.4M; ether (-1.0%) about $23.9M / $134.9M; solana (-0.3%) about $3.3M / $20.3M; Hyperliquid's HYPE (-0.2%) about $0.2M / $19.8M; NEAR Protocol (-2.7%) about $1.1M / $16.8M [5].
US spot bitcoin ETF flows are a separate tape. Farside Investors shows an Oct. 23 total of about -$137.9M after Oct. 22's about -$635.6M. There was no Oct. 24 row on the Farside page at about 9:21 p.m. ET, consistent with a weekend [6]. Those prints are context for the week. This piece does not treat them as the cause of Saturday's dip.
One fair objection is that tagging an average cost basis intraday says little about whether those holders sold, marked losses in filings, or changed buy programs. Glassnode's own weekly test is a daily close below $80K. Saturday's CMC UTC close stayed above that line [1][4].
A second limit is timing. Glassnode's treasury and ETF cost figures are as of Oct. 19. CoinGecko's 24-hour low and CoinMarketCap's evening spot are Oct. 24 stamps. The comparison is same-band levels across those dates, not a live Glassnode refresh of every holder book on Saturday afternoon [1][2][3].
Weekend liquidity, oil and Middle East headlines, and ETF flows circulated as explanations for the earlier slide; none is confirmed here, and this piece assigns no cause [5][6].
In Le Coin's view, the tell is whether a coming UTC daily close finishes below $80,000, the line Glassnode tied to an average loss for ETF and treasury holders as of its Oct. 19 cut, and whether treasury-company buying stays at the reduced post-June pace that report described [1][4]. Two dated calendar items sit next to that read without predicting a path: the Fed decision on Oct. 28, and MSCI's list of non-operating-company index removals on Nov. 11, with changes effective at the Nov. 30 close. Glassnode noted that an August test run on May data flagged Strategy and Metaplanet among names that could face that test [1].
Holding the Corner.
Not financial advice.