The CFTC's rule placing sportsbook wagers and casino games outside its definition of a swap takes effect today with its publication in the Federal Register, and a companion proposal to define sports, political and other event contracts as swaps is now open for comment until Nov. 18. Together they set out the agency's position on the question behind state challenges to Kalshi: whether event contracts, the yes-or-no contracts traded on prediction markets, fall under federal derivatives law or state gambling law. [4][5]
Bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP are modestly higher since Friday's U.S. close after a Sunday-afternoon selloff, though 22 of the 36 coins in Le Coin's screen are lower. [1][2]
Stakes / What matters today
- Sportsbook and casino bets now sit outside the CFTC's swap definition. The interim final rule took effect today, leaving products it describes as "traditionally regulated at the State level" to the states. [4]
- Comments on the event-contract proposal are due Nov. 18. The CFTC can then move to finalize a rule defining sports, political, cultural and weather contracts as swaps. [5]
- The SEC's comment period on Regulation Crypto Assets closes Tuesday. The proposal would let crypto projects raise up to $75 million a year without full registration. [6]
- Solana's Alpenglow upgrade is set to activate Wednesday at about 11:00 a.m. ET, cutting the network's reported transaction counts by design. [7]
- Cipher Digital closed $850 million of zero-coupon convertible notes Friday. Conversions of its older 2030 and 2031 notes will now settle in shares by default. [8]
Crypto since Friday's U.S. close
All four majors sit above their Friday 4:00 p.m. ET levels, led by solana's 1.71% gain. CoinGecko USD prices, Friday 4:00 p.m. ET to Monday 6:20 a.m. ET. [1]
| Asset | Fri 4:00 p.m. ET | Mon 6:20 a.m. ET | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $81,506.05 | $82,562.88 | +1.30% |
| ETH | $2,410.24 | $2,430.50 | +0.84% |
| SOL | $103.47 | $105.24 | +1.71% |
| XRP | $1.2979 | $1.3094 | +0.89% |
On CoinGecko hourly data, ether's 4:00 p.m. ET Sunday low of $2,335.57 was its lowest since Aug. 20, and solana's $100.75 was its lowest since Sept. 17. Bitcoin's Sunday low of $80,814.25 held above its Thursday 10:00 a.m. ET hourly low of $80,116.63. [2]
The biggest moves were declines. Every coin in Le Coin's 36-coin screen that moved 3% or more fell; the best performer, PEPE, rose 2.43%. Celestia, which stores transaction data for other blockchains, dropped 10.05%, erasing most of Friday morning's 16.66% jump. [1]
| Coin | Fri 4:00 p.m. ET | Mon 6:20 a.m. ET | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIA (Celestia) | $0.6792 | $0.6110* | −10.05% |
| SEI (Sei) | $0.06575 | $0.06029* | −8.31% |
| FIL (Filecoin) | $1.1359 | $1.0417 | −8.30% |
| OP (Optimism) | $0.13669 | $0.12643 | −7.51% |
| APT (Aptos) | $0.8406 | $0.7818 | −7.00% |
* 6:00 a.m. ET, the latest hourly point CoinGecko returned for TIA and SEI.
Seven more fell between 3.45% and 4.67%, led by Render and Ethena. [1]
TradFi backdrop
Treasury yields slipped Friday, capping a week in which the 10-year yield fell 15 basis points to 5.09%. [3]
| Tenor | Fri Oct. 16 | Thu Oct. 15 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.74% | 4.77% | −3 bp |
| 10-year | 5.09% | 5.10% | −1 bp |
The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields widened to 35 basis points from 33. Figures are the Treasury's official end-of-day par yields. [3]
Macro calendar
No BLS or Census release is scheduled today, and the Fed Board's calendar lists no speeches. Treasury's auctions of $95 billion of 13-week bills and $82 billion of 26-week bills close at 11:30 a.m. ET. [11][12][13][14]
What printed
01 · The CFTC's casino-style carve-out takes effect today, and comments on it and the event-contract proposal are due Nov. 18. Both documents went on public inspection at 8:45 a.m. ET Friday and appear in today's Federal Register. The interim final rule excludes "casino-style gambling products, including wagers placed on sportsbooks and casino games," from the swap definition. The proposal's background cites the KalshiEX cases in state and federal courts. [4][5]
02 · SEC comments on Regulation Crypto Assets close Tuesday on a plan to let crypto projects raise up to $75 million a year without full registration. The proposal, published Aug. 21, would create "a tailored offering regime for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets" through two exemptions from Securities Act registration: offerings "of up to $5 million during a four-year period" and "up to $75 million during each 12-month period." Once comments close, the SEC can move to a final rule. [6]
03 · Solana's Alpenglow upgrade is set to activate Wednesday, and reported transaction counts will fall by design. The Solana Foundation says Alpenglow activates in epoch 1064, which starts at about 15:00 UTC (11:00 a.m. ET) Wednesday. It targets finality, the point when a transaction can no longer be reversed, of "roughly 150 milliseconds," down from "about 12.8 seconds." With validator votes out of the blocks, the foundation warns that transaction counts drop "sharply without any drop in real activity." Validators must run a client built on Agave 4.3.0 and hold at least 0.8 SOL to pay a new admission fee; a validator whose account can't pay the fee does not vote or produce blocks in the next epoch. Usage charts that span Wednesday won't compare directly unless they strip out vote transactions. For how the network works, see the Learning Hub's Solana dive. [7]
04 · Cipher Digital closes $850 million of zero-coupon convertible notes and moves its older notes to share settlement. Cipher, formerly named Cipher Mining, issued the 0.00% notes due 2032 on Oct. 16, according to an 8-K filed at 5:26 p.m. ET Friday. They convert at about $15.31 a share, and the initial purchasers hold a 13-day option on up to $150 million more. Holders also swapped about $165.9 million of its 1.75% 2030 notes for roughly 40.7 million shares, leaving about $6.6 million outstanding. Cipher told holders of those notes and of its $1.3 billion of 0.00% notes due 2031 that conversions will now settle in shares by default. Its zero-coupon converts total about $2.15 billion before the option, by Le Coin's arithmetic. [8][9]
Chart of the day
The weekend round trip: a Sunday-afternoon dip, then a rebound above Friday's close. From Friday's 4:00 p.m. ET close to the 4:00 p.m. ET Sunday hourly low, ether fell 3.10%, XRP 2.97%, solana 2.62% and bitcoin 0.85% (Fig. 1). All four recovered by early Monday and now sit 0.84% to 1.71% above Friday's level. The dip was broad: 35 of the 36 coins in Le Coin's screen set their 24-hour low between 3:40 and 5:10 p.m. ET Sunday. [1][2]
Fig. 1. Hourly prices indexed to 100 at Friday, Oct. 16, 4:00 p.m. ET, through Monday, Oct. 19, 6:20 a.m. ET. Price data by CoinGecko; accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:23 to 6:28 a.m. ET. [2]
On the calendar
The SEC's comment close Tuesday and Solana's upgrade Wednesday lead the week; the CFTC's comment window runs to Nov. 18. All times ET.
| When | What |
|---|---|
| Mon Oct. 19 · 11:30 a.m. ET | Treasury's 13-week ($95 billion) and 26-week ($82 billion) bill auctions close. [11] |
| Tue Oct. 20 | SEC comment period on Regulation Crypto Assets closes [6]; Strive's $630 million SATS preferred offering is expected to settle [10]; 6-week bill auction [11]. |
| Tue Oct. 20 · 8:30 a.m. ET | Housing starts (Sept.), Census. [14] |
| Tue Oct. 20 · 10:00 a.m. ET | State employment and unemployment (Sept.), BLS. [13] |
| Wed Oct. 21 · ~11:00 a.m. ET | Solana's Alpenglow upgrade set to activate (epoch 1064). [7] |
| Wed Oct. 21 / Thu Oct. 22 | Treasury auctions: $13 billion 20-year bond reopening; $26 billion 5-year TIPS (inflation-protected notes). [11] |
| Tue Oct. 27–Wed Oct. 28 | FOMC; statement 2:00 p.m. ET, press conference 2:30 p.m. ET Oct. 28. [12] |
| Tue Nov. 3 · 10:45 a.m. ET | Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee meets. [15] |
| Wed Nov. 18 | Comments due on the CFTC's casino-style interim final rule and event-contract proposal. [4][5] |
Sources (15)
- Prices: Powered by CoinGecko API (https://www.coingecko.com). CoinGecko public API, /coins/{id}/market_chart/range, USD, 5-minute points for 36 coins, Friday Oct. 16 4:00 p.m. ET and Monday Oct. 19 6:20 a.m. ET (6:00 a.m. ET hourly points for TIA, SEI, FET and ALGO), plus last-24-hour lows. Percentage changes are Le Coin's arithmetic. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:23 to 6:28 a.m. ET.
- Prices: Powered by CoinGecko API (https://www.coingecko.com). CoinGecko public API, /coins/{id}/market_chart?days=90, USD, hourly, for bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP (coverage from July 21, 2026). Fig. 1 index = price / Friday Oct. 16 4:00 p.m. ET price × 100; the first and last Fig. 1 points are the 5-minute points in source 1. Lowest-since dates are on hourly points. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:28 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, Friday Oct. 16, 2026 vs Thursday Oct. 15 and Friday Oct. 9. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission, interim final rule, "Further Definition of 'Swap' To Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products," FR Doc. 2026-21376, 91 FR 65969, Oct. 19, 2026. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, ~6:24 a.m. ET.
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission, proposed rule, "Further Definition of 'Swap'—Inclusions," FR Doc. 2026-21377, 91 FR 66022, Oct. 19, 2026. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, ~6:24 a.m. ET.
- Securities and Exchange Commission, proposed rule, "Regulation Crypto Assets," FR Doc. 2026-17183, 91 FR 54510, Aug. 21, 2026. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, ~6:26 a.m. ET.
- Solana Foundation, Alpenglow upgrade page, updated October 2026. 15:00 UTC = 11:00 a.m. ET is Le Coin's conversion. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, ~6:25 a.m. ET.
- Cipher Digital Inc., Form 8-K with Ex. 99.1, accession 0001193125-26-424297, accepted 5:26 p.m. ET Oct. 16, 2026. The $2.15 billion total is Le Coin's arithmetic ($850 million + $1.3 billion). Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, ~6:26 a.m. ET.
- SEC EDGAR, submissions for Cipher Digital Inc. (CIK 1819989), former names. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:45 a.m. ET.
- Strive, Inc., final prospectus supplement (424B5), Reg. No. 333-290252, accepted 5:22 p.m. ET Oct. 16, 2026. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, ~6:25 a.m. ET.
- TreasuryDirect, upcoming auctions. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- Federal Reserve Board, calendar, October 2026. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Schedule of Selected Releases, October 2026. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 Economic Indicator Calendar. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Debt Management Advisory Committee meeting notice, FR Doc. 2026-21270. Accessed Oct. 19, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET.
Holding the Corner.
Not financial advice.