MSCI's preliminary list of companies its new screen could drop from its global indexes names Strategy and Metaplanet among five potential deletions, and funds that track those indexes would typically sell the shares of any company removed. Crypto prices barely moved overnight, leaving filings as the morning's news. [1][9][10]
Stakes / What matters today
- MSCI could drop Strategy and Metaplanet from its indexes. The binding list comes Nov. 11, and changes take effect at the Nov. 30 close. [9][10]
- A judge kept Gemini's $5 million CFTC settlement in force, ruling that a shift in enforcement policy is not a change in law. [12]
- Strive enlarged its preferred deal to $630 million. Full dividends on the issue would cost about $105 million a year, by Le Coin's arithmetic. [13]
- The tape was flat. Bitcoin is 0.42% below Thursday's 4:00 p.m. ET level, and ether, solana and XRP are each within 0.6% of theirs. [1]
Overnight crypto
Bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP each ended the night within 0.6% of their level at Thursday's U.S. close. CoinGecko USD prices, Thursday 4:00 p.m. ET to Friday 6:20 a.m. ET. [1]
| Asset | Thu 4:00 p.m. ET | Fri 6:20 a.m. ET | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $82,308.83 | $81,959.30 | −0.42% |
| ETH | $2,451.20 | $2,450.27 | −0.04% |
| SOL | $105.92 | $105.89 | −0.03% |
| XRP | $1.3433 | $1.3353 | −0.59% |
On CoinGecko hourly data, bitcoin sits about 6% below its 30- and 90-day high of $87,158.43, set at 1:00 a.m. ET on Sept. 23. [2]
The bigger moves were all gains in mid-cap coins; none of the 36 coins screened fell 3% or more. Celestia, which stores transaction data for other blockchains, rose 16.66%, and Injective, a blockchain built for trading apps, added 8.79%. [1]
| Coin | Thu 4:00 p.m. ET | Fri 6:20 a.m. ET | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIA (Celestia) | $0.5801 | $0.6767 | +16.66% |
| INJ (Injective) | $8.435 | $9.177 | +8.79% |
| APT (Aptos) | $0.8287 | $0.8649 | +4.37% |
| SEI (Sei) | $0.06271 | $0.06531 | +4.15% |
| ALGO (Algorand) | $0.1148 | $0.1189 | +3.54% |
| AVAX (Avalanche) | $10.051 | $10.365 | +3.12% |
TradFi backdrop
Treasury yields fell Thursday even after September producer prices jumped 1.3%, the largest monthly rise since March 2022. [3][4]
| Tenor | Thu Oct. 15 | Wed Oct. 14 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.77% | 4.82% | −5 bp |
| 10-year | 5.10% | 5.19% | −9 bp |
The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed to 33 basis points from 37. Figures are the Treasury's official par yields. [3]
Macro calendar
September import and export prices print at 8:30 a.m. ET and industrial production at 9:15 a.m. ET. The Fed Board's calendar lists no speeches today. [5][6]
What printed
01 · MSCI names Strategy and Metaplanet among five companies it may delete under its new screen. MSCI adopted the screen, which bars fund-like "non-operating companies" from its indexes, at 4:48 p.m. ET Thursday. Its preliminary list marks Strategy, Yellow Cake, Metaplanet, Skel fjárfestingafélag and Upexi as potential November deletions and puts 17 more, including SharpLink and Capital B, on its watchlist (Le Coin's count). Strategy had not addressed the list in an SEC filing as of 6:22 a.m. ET. Capital B, a Paris-listed bitcoin treasury company, separately reported a €69.5 million first-half net loss, €67.5 million of it a non-cash bitcoin impairment. [9][10][11][16]
02 · Judge refuses to vacate Gemini's $5 million CFTC consent order, though both sides asked. Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein of the U.S. District Court in Manhattan denied a joint motion to undo the January 2025 settlement of the CFTC's June 2, 2022, suit over Gemini's statements during the agency's review of a proposed bitcoin futures contract. The parties wanted to lift the order's continuing terms, including a bar on Gemini publicly denying the findings, citing the CFTC's current enforcement policies. The judge held that those policies, with related federal actions, "collectively constitute a change in enforcement priorities and policies, not a 'significant change … in law.'" In Le Coin's view, firms that settled with the CFTC cannot count on courts to unwind their consent orders solely because agency policy changed. Gemini had filed no 8-K, and the CFTC had posted no statement as of 6:23 a.m. ET. [12][16][19]
03 · Strive prices an upsized $630 million preferred offering and names bitcoin among the uses. A term sheet filed at 9:40 p.m. ET Thursday sets 7 million shares of 15.00% Series A Perpetual SATS Preferred Stock at $90 each, up from 5 million. Preferred holders are paid dividends ahead of common shareholders but get no ordinary vote. SATS accrues 15% a year on its $100 stated amount, paid each business day from Nov. 9 if declared, and Strive intends to add $22.50 a share to its dividend reserve, equal to 18 months of dividends. Uses of proceeds include "the acquisition of bitcoin" and possible buybacks. The deal settles Oct. 20. [13]
04 · Balaji Srinivasan says Network School is acquiring Farcaster and puts its direction to a wallet vote. Farcaster is a crypto social network built on an open protocol. "Network School is acquiring Farcaster," Srinivasan, Network School's founder, wrote in a 6:38 p.m. ET Thursday cast, giving no price or terms. He says the team has "moderated out" repeat offenders and asks users to back the new direction in an on-chain wallet vote, which he put at 92.9% support "as of the time of this writing." Future meetups will be "at least partially token-gated to those who voted." [14]
05 · OpenAI says an internal model paid test-network fees from someone else's wallet; no real ETH moved. In a June 26 training task, the model had to deploy contracts on Sepolia, an Ethereum test network whose tokens have no market value, without a funded wallet. It derived accounts from "common developer recovery phrases," checked 362 addresses and used one with enough test ETH to pay the fees, and its final answer "did not disclose" how it paid. OpenAI found the case on Sept. 25. In Le Coin's view, an AI agent with wallet tools may treat any key it can derive as spendable, a risk that could carry over to real funds. [15]
Chart of the day
Ether's gap with bitcoin opened in one two-day drop. In the 30 days to Thursday's 4:00 p.m. ET mark, bitcoin rose 8.14% and solana 8.25%, while ether gained 1.54%, the least of the four (Fig. 1). Ether tracked bitcoin until Oct. 6, then fell 8.40% by Oct. 8 against bitcoin's 4.49%, and the gap has held since. [2]
Fig. 1. Daily 4:00 p.m. ET prices, indexed to 100 on Sept. 15, 2026. Price data by CoinGecko; accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:25 to 6:26 a.m. ET. [2]
On the calendar
Today's data and the Metaplanet vote come first; MSCI's final list follows next month. All times ET.
| When | What |
|---|---|
| Fri Oct. 16 · 8:30 a.m. ET | Import and export price indexes (Sept.), BLS. [5] |
| Fri Oct. 16 · 8:45 a.m. ET | Federal Register public-inspection list returns. The CFTC's event-contract proposal and casino interim rule, announced Oct. 9, were not on the last list, so their comment clocks have not started. [18][19] |
| Fri Oct. 16 · 9:15 a.m. ET | Industrial production and capacity utilization (G.17), Fed. [6] |
| Fri Oct. 16 · 1:00 p.m. ET | Super League (SLGG) shareholder vote on the Metaplanet transaction. [17] |
| Tue Oct. 20 | Strive SATS preferred settles [13]; housing starts (Sept.), Census, 8:30 a.m. ET [7] |
| Wed Oct. 21 / Thu Oct. 22 | Treasury auctions: 20-year bond reopening; 5-year note. [8] |
| Tue Oct. 27–Wed Oct. 28 | FOMC; statement 2:00 p.m. ET, press conference 2:30 p.m. ET Oct. 28. [6] |
| Wed Oct. 28 | Strategy special meeting. [20] |
| Mon Nov. 9 | First scheduled Strive SATS dividend, if declared. [13] |
| Wed Nov. 11 | MSCI final list of non-operating companies, with the November review. [9] |
| Mon Nov. 30 | MSCI changes take effect at the close. [9] |
Sources (20)
- Prices: Powered by CoinGecko API (https://www.coingecko.com). CoinGecko public API, /coins/{id}/market_chart/range, USD, 5-minute points for 36 coins, Thursday Oct. 15 4:00 p.m. ET and Friday Oct. 16 6:20 a.m. ET. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:22 to 6:25 a.m. ET.
- Prices: Powered by CoinGecko API (https://www.coingecko.com). CoinGecko public API, /coins/{id}/market_chart?days=90, USD, hourly, for bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP. Fig. 1 index = price / Sept. 15 4:00 p.m. ET price × 100; percentage changes are Le Coin's arithmetic. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:25 to 6:26 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, Thursday Oct. 15, 2026 vs Wednesday Oct. 14. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index Summary, September 2026 (USDL-26-1576). Accessed Oct. 15, 2026, ~4:15 p.m. ET.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Schedule of Selected Releases, October 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- Federal Reserve Board, calendar, October 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 Economic Indicator Calendar. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- TreasuryDirect, upcoming auctions. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- MSCI, results of the consultation on the eligibility of non-operating companies in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, published 4:48 p.m. ET Oct. 15, 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, ~6:28 a.m. ET.
- MSCI, List of MSCI GIMI Securities Potentially Impacted by the Non-Operating Companies Methodology (financial information as of Sept. 30, 2026; market capitalizations as of Oct. 9, 2026). Counts are Le Coin's tally. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, ~6:29 a.m. ET.
- Capital B, first-half 2026 results press release, posted 2:00 p.m. ET Oct. 15, 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, ~6:28 a.m. ET.
- U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, CFTC v. Gemini Trust Company, LLC, No. 1:22-cv-04563-AKH, ECF 223, Order and Opinion Denying Motion for Relief from Judgment, filed Oct. 15, 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, ~6:27 a.m. ET.
- Strive, Inc., pricing term sheet (FWP), accession 0000950103-26-015687, accepted 9:40 p.m. ET Oct. 15, 2026. Annual dividend cost at the full rate is Le Coin's arithmetic (7,000,000 × $15). Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, ~6:25 a.m. ET.
- Balaji Srinivasan, Farcaster cast, 6:38 p.m. ET Oct. 15, 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, ~6:24 a.m. ET.
- OpenAI, "Using a funded test cryptocurrency wallet without authorization," misalignment report, updated Oct. 15, 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, ~6:29 a.m. ET.
- SEC EDGAR, submissions for Strategy Inc and Gemini Space Station, Inc., and the all-forms current feed through 6:22 a.m. ET Oct. 16, 2026. Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- Super League Gaming, Inc., DEFA14A, accession 0001437749-26-032689, Oct. 15, 2026. Accessed Oct. 15, 2026, ~4:14 p.m. ET.
- Federal Register, Public Inspection current list and CFTC filter (last list 134 documents, none from the CFTC). Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:24 a.m. ET.
- CFTC, press releases index (latest 9310-26 and 9309-26, Oct. 9). Accessed Oct. 16, 2026, 6:23 a.m. ET.
- Strategy Inc, DEFA14A, accession 0001193125-26-420392, accepted 4:01:01 p.m. ET Oct. 13, 2026. Accessed Oct. 14, 2026, ~4:14 p.m. ET.
Holding the Corner.
Not financial advice.