Stakes / What matters today
- Prediction-market jurisdiction. Oct. 9: a CFTC proposed rule (NPRM) would define sports-, politics-, culture- and weather-related event contracts as "swaps"; an interim final rule (IFR), effective on publication, carves out casino-style betting. The CFTC says swaps sit in its exclusive jurisdiction. Comments: 30 days after Federal Register publication. [11][12][13]
- XRPN's first Nasdaq session. Evernorth closed Friday; XRPN/XRPNW are set to trade Monday after 80.3% of SPAC shares were redeemed. Its private placements were priced off a Closing XRP Price of $1.43069. XRP-USD $1.3975 at 8:25 a.m. ET Monday, +0.90% from Friday 4:00 p.m. ET $1.3851 (~2.3% below the closing reference). [16][1][20]
- Weekend bid, fading into the open. BTC +0.98%, ETH +2.53%, SOL +2.04% since Friday's U.S. close at 8:25 a.m. ET, down from +2.21%, +3.67% and +3.75% at 3:02 a.m. ET OKX funding, the periodic payment between long and short perpetual-swap holders, is near flat; OKX liquidated more ether shorts than longs over the past day. Stablecoin supply $311.3B (DefiLlama), ~$1.5B below Oct. 7. [1][10][25][18]
- Rule clocks. CFTC crypto ANPRM publishes Tuesday (60-day comments). SEC deadline to act on MEMX's securities event-contract proposal: Nov. 25. [14][15][19]
Overnight crypto
From the Coinbase one-minute candle stamped 4:00 p.m. ET Friday Oct. 9 to 8:25 a.m. ET Monday. Columbus Day closes the U.S. bond market, but U.S. stock exchanges are open; crypto traded through the weekend. [1][21][22][23]
- BTC-USD $83,109.53 at 8:25 a.m. ET, +0.98% from $82,299.81. [1]
- ETH-USD $2,539.36 at 8:25 a.m. ET, +2.53% from $2,476.76. [1]
- SOL-USD $110.77 at 8:25 a.m. ET, +2.04% from $108.56. [1]
Top Coinbase USD movers in a 28-pair liquid screen; ATOM fell 8.0% [2]:
| Coin | Last (ET) | Since Fri close |
|---|---|---|
| TIA | $0.5829 · 8:25 a.m. ET | +25.03% |
| NEAR | $5.6526 · 8:25 a.m. ET | +21.02% |
| INJ | $7.984 · 8:25 a.m. ET | +16.54% |
| FIL | $1.2414 · 8:25 a.m. ET | +15.72% |
| ALGO | $0.12893 · 8:25 a.m. ET | +15.66% |
| ICP | $3.4252 · 8:24 a.m. ET | +14.17% |
TradFi backdrop
ES=F 7,868.25 (+0.11% vs Friday 7,859.75); NQ=F 31,073.50 (−0.11% vs 31,108.75) at 8:15 a.m. ET. [3] Japan closed for Sports Day. [24] Hang Seng closed at 24,271.20, +0.25% vs Friday's 24,211.35; Kospi closed at 6,384.24, down 3.65% from Thursday's 6,625.93 (Korea was shut Friday). [3] DAX 25,302.89 (+0.86% vs Friday 25,087.27), Euro Stoxx 50 6,214.66 (+0.67% vs Friday 6,173.37) and FTSE 100 10,644.35 (+0.87% vs Friday 10,552.05) at 8:10 a.m. ET. [3] Bonds are closed Monday; U.S. stocks trade. [21][22][23]Friday Treasury par yields: 2-year 4.80% (+5 bp), 10-year 5.24% (+2 bp). [4] Liner: Hammack NABE keynote 12:50 p.m. ET; Fed releases due today shift to Tuesday. [7][5]
Macro calendar
Columbus Day: U.S. bond market closed, stock exchanges open; no BLS releases; Fed statistical releases shift to Tuesday; Hammack 12:50 p.m. ET; Japan holiday. [21][22][23][6][5][7][24]
What printed
01 · CFTC proposes event contracts as swaps. Oct. 9 notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM, RIN 3038-AF82) would "further define the term 'swap' to explicitly include event contracts" on sports, politics, culture and weather; an interim final rule (IFR, RIN 3038-AF81) excludes "casino-style gambling products, including wagers placed on sportsbooks and casino games." Comments: 30 days after FR publication. Names Polymarket and Nadex/Crypto.com; lists Kalshi state suits. [11][12][13]
02 · Crypto ANPRM hits Tuesday's Federal Register. The advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPRM, RIN 3038-AF80, FR Doc. 2026-20888) seeks "fit-for-purpose rules implementing section 2(c)(2)(D) … with respect to transactions and markets in crypto assets," framed around retail commodity transactions "entered into, or offered … on a leveraged or margined basis, or financed." Comments: 60 days after publication, Dec. 12 by our count; the published notice sets the date. Parts 38/39 in scope. [14][19]
03 · Evernorth closed; XRPN set to trade Monday. 8-K at 4:25 p.m. ET Oct. 9: XRPN/XRPNW for Nasdaq Oct. 12. Closing XRP Price $1.43069. Series C: 211,319,096 XRP; advance funding: ~$214.05M cash + 600,000 XRP; 80.3% SPAC redemption ($195.39M). [16]
04 · Aave Labs files to list USAT. Request for final comment (ARFC) Friday 12:13 p.m. ET: onboard USAT (Anchorage Digital Bank, N.A.; GENIUS Act–subject and 1:1 redeemable per the post) to Aave V3 Core and V4 Core Hub. A Snapshot vote and an on-chain AIP are still ahead; nothing is live. [17]
Related: the SEC set Nov. 25 as its deadline to act on MEMX's proposal to list securities event contracts (SR-MEMX-2026-25). [15]
ETF / flow line
Friday Oct. 9 (Farside): spot bitcoin ETFs +$21.1 million; spot ether ETFs −$56.1 million, all from ETHA, the ninth consecutive outflow day (Sep. 29 to Oct. 9). [8][9]
Perps / funding
OKX USDT swaps, 8:25 a.m. ET: BTC funding +0.008096% (last settle +0.002495%); ETH +0.001206% (last settle −0.000096%). Mark-to-index premium ~−4.8 bp BTC, −4.2 bp ETH. Near flat. [10] Liquidations (OKX only): from Sunday morning (earliest OKX retains: 8:57 a.m. ET BTC, 9:22 a.m. ET ETH) to 8:23 a.m. ET Monday, BTC-USDT swaps liquidated $6.9 million longs / $6.6 million shorts and ETH-USDT swaps $4.2 million longs / $14.7 million shorts, at bankruptcy price. No large cluster. Cross-exchange totals unavailable: Coinglass needs an API key and its page did not render data, and Binance and Bybit block our location. [25]
Digital-asset equities
Friday: COIN $179.39 (+4.30%), HUT $84.27 (+5.88%), MSTR $154.34 (+1.89%). Miners soft on the week (MARA $9.65 −2.62% Friday; CLSK, IREN lower). U.S. stocks trade Monday despite Columbus Day; XRPN is set to debut on Nasdaq. [3][16][22][23]
Chart of the day
Spot ether ETFs had outflows for nine straight sessions; bitcoin funds took in $21.1 million Friday. Spot ether ETFs lost $56.1 million Friday, all from ETHA, the ninth straight outflow session since Sep. 29; spot bitcoin ETFs took in $21.1 million. [8][9]So what: ether was up 2.53% on Coinbase since Friday's close at 8:25 a.m. ET while U.S.-listed funds were shut, and Monday's session, open despite Columbus Day, gives the first fund-flow read on that move. [1][8][9]
Fig. 1. Source: Farside Investors, Ethereum ETF Flow, Total column. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:00 a.m. ET. [9]
On the calendar
All times ET.
| When | What |
|---|---|
| Mon Oct. 12 | Columbus Day; bond market closed, U.S. stock exchanges open; XRPN/XRPNW set to debut on Nasdaq. [21][22][23][16] |
| Mon · 12:50 p.m. ET | Hammack, NABE keynote. [7] |
| Tue Oct. 13 | Fed statistical catch-up; CFTC crypto ANPRM publishes (60-day clock). [5][14][19] |
| Wed Oct. 14 · 8:30 a.m. ET | CPI + Real Earnings (Sep). [6] |
| Wed Oct. 14 · 2:00 p.m. ET | Beige Book. [5] |
| Thu Oct. 15 · 8:30 a.m. ET | PPI (Sep). [6] |
| Oct. 27–28 | FOMC. [5] |
| 30 / 60 days after FR publication | CFTC event-contract comments (30 days); crypto ANPRM comments (60 days; Dec. 12 by our count). [11][14] |
| Nov. 25 | SEC deadline to act on MEMX's securities event-contract proposal. [15] |
Sources (25)
- Coinbase Exchange, BTC-USD, ETH-USD, SOL-USD and XRP-USD tickers and one-minute candles (Friday Oct. 9 4:00 p.m. ET candle). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET.
- Coinbase Exchange, liquid USD movers screen, 28 pairs (TIA, NEAR, INJ, FIL, ALGO, ICP, ATOM and peers). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET.
- Yahoo Finance chart API, ES=F, NQ=F, ^HSI, ^KS11, ^GDAXI, ^STOXX50E, ^FTSE, COIN, HUT, MARA, CLSK, IREN, MSTR. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET.
- U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, Friday Oct. 9, 2026 close. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:01 a.m. ET.
- Federal Reserve Board, calendar, October 2026. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET.
- BLS, Schedule of Selected Releases, October 2026. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET.
- Cleveland Fed, President Hammack NABE keynote listing for Oct. 12. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:02 a.m. ET.
- Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETF Flow, Friday Oct. 9 session. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET; rechecked 8:26 a.m. ET, unchanged.
- Farside Investors, Ethereum ETF Flow, Friday Oct. 9 session (ninth consecutive outflow day, Sep. 29 to Oct. 9). Fig. 1 uses the daily Total column, US$ millions, no adjustment. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET; rechecked 8:26 a.m. ET, unchanged.
- OKX public API, BTC-USDT-SWAP and ETH-USDT-SWAP funding-rate, funding-rate-history, mark-price and index. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET.
- CFTC Press Release 9310-26, Oct. 9, 2026. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET.
- CFTC NPRM, Further Definition of "Swap", Inclusions, RIN 3038-AF82. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET.
- CFTC Press Release 9309-26 and IFR, RIN 3038-AF81. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET.
- CFTC ANPRM, Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets, RIN 3038-AF80, FR Doc. 2026-20888. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET.
- SEC Release No. 34-106626, MEMX LLC, FR Doc. 2026-20801. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, ~3:00 a.m. ET.
- Evernorth Holdings Inc., Form 8-K, accession 0001193125-26-419146, accepted 4:25 p.m. ET Oct. 9, 2026. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:02 a.m. ET.
- Aave Governance forum, "[ARFC] Onboard USAT to Aave V3 Core Instance and Aave V4 Core Hub on Ethereum," Oct. 9, 2026, 12:13 p.m. ET. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:02 a.m. ET.
- DefiLlama Stablecoins, all-chain total circulating (peggedUSD). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET.
- Federal Register Public Inspection, current list. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:00 a.m. ET.
- Coinbase Exchange, XRP-USD ticker (Stakes refresh). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET.
- SIFMA, holiday schedule, 2026 (Columbus Day, Oct. 12: U.S. bond market closed). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:17 a.m. ET.
- NYSE, Holidays & Trading Hours, 2026 (Columbus Day not a market holiday). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:17 a.m. ET.
- Nasdaq Trader, U.S. market holidays, 2026 (Columbus Day not a market holiday). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:17 a.m. ET.
- Japan Exchange Group, market holidays (Oct. 12, 2026, Sports Day). Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 3:17 a.m. ET.
- OKX public API, liquidation-orders, BTC-USDT and ETH-USDT perpetual swaps, filled orders retained from Sunday Oct. 11 (8:57 a.m. ET BTC, 9:22 a.m. ET ETH) to 8:23 a.m. ET Monday; notional = contracts × contract value × bankruptcy price. Accessed Oct. 12, 2026, 8:25 a.m. ET.Holding the Corner.
Not financial advice.